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Title: The Shepherd of Banbury's Rules to Judge of the Changes of the Weather, Grounded on Forty Years' Experience

Author: John Claridge

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Language: English

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THE

SHEPHERD

OF

BANBURY'S RULES

To judge of the

CHANGES of the WEATHER,

Grounded on Forty Years' EXPERIENCE;

By which you may know

The WEATHER for several Days to come,
and in some Cases for Months.

To which is added

A Rational ACCOUNT of the CAUSES of
such Alterations, the Nature of Wind,
Rain, Snow, &c.



By _JOHN CLARIDGE_, Shepherd.



A NEW EDITION, Corrected.


_L O N D O N_:
Printed for
THOMAS HURST, EDWARD CHANCE, & Co.,
65, _St. Paul's Church-Yard._
1827.

J. M'Creery, Tooks Court,
Chancery Lane, London.




INTRODUCTION.


AS we very justly esteem it a fit Tribute of Admiration to adorn
natural Curiosities, by setting them as richly and as advantageously as
art can direct, so the following Observations of the Shepherd of
_Banbury_ have appeared to me worthy of being presented to the Eye of
the Public, with all the Lustre that it was in my Power to give them.
It is one thing to observe, and another to reason upon Observations,
and it very rarely happens that both can be taken into the Compass of
one Man's Life. We ought therefore to consider it as a very lucky
Incident, when the Observations of another Man, upon whom we can
depend, fall into our Hands, and enable us to add natural Experience to
the Notions derived to us from Books of Philosophy.

THERE is a Degree of Pedantry in Desarts as well as Colleges. Men who
derive their Knowledge entirely from Experience are apt to despise what
they call Book Learning, and Men of great Reading are as apt to fall
into a less excusable mistake, that of taking the Knowledge of Words
for the Knowledge of Things; whereas there are not any two points more
opposite in Nature, since we very rarely see, that either true Scholars
are talkative, or that talkative Men are true Scholars.

THE Shepherd, whose sole Business it is to observe what has a Reference
to the Flock under his Care, who spends all his Days and many of his
Nights in the open Air, and under the wide spread Canopy of Heaven, is
in a Manner obliged to take particular Notice of the Alterations of the
Weather, and when once he comes to take a Pleasure in making such
Observations, it is amazing how great a Progress he makes in them, and
to how great a Certainty at last he arrives by mere dint of comparing
Signs and Events, and correcting one Remark by another. Every thing in
Time becomes to him a Sort of Weather-Gage. The Sun, the Moon, the
Stars, the Clouds, the Winds, the Mists, the Trees, the Flowers, the
Herbs, and almost every Animal with which he is acquainted. All these I
say become to such a person Instruments of real Knowledge.

THERE are a Sort of half wise People, who from the Consideration of the
Distances of Things, are apt to treat such Prognostications, as they
phrase them, with much Contempt. They can see no Connexion between a
Cat's washing her Face, and the Sky's being overspread with Clouds, and
therefore they boldly pronounce that the one has no Relation to the
other. Yet the same People will readily own that the fluttering of the
Flame of a Candle is a certain token of Wind, which however is not
discernible by their Feeling; because it lies within the Compass of
their Understanding to discern that this Fluctuation of the Flame is
caused by the Wind acting upon it, and therefore they are inclined to
believe this, though it does not fall actually under the Cognizance of
their Senses. But a Man of a larger Compass of Knowledge, who is
acquainted with the Nature and Qualities of the Air, and knows what an
Effect any Alterations in the Weight, the Dryness, or the Humidity of
it has upon all animal Bodies, easily perceives the Reason why other
Animals are much sooner sensible of any Alterations that happen in that
Element than Men, and therefore to him the cawing of Ravens, the
chattering of Swallows, and a Cat's washing her Face are not
superstitious Signs, but natural tokens (like that of the Candle's
fluttering) of a Change of Weather, and as such they have been thought
worthy of Notice by _Aristotle_, _Virgil_, _Pliny_, and all the wisest
and gravest Writers of Antiquity.

BUT still a few slight and trivial Observations of this Kind, and such
as are in the Power of every Man to make, go but a very little Way in
furnishing us with a useful Knowledge of the Indications of the
Weather. To supply these, and to have constantly at Hand the Means of
judging of these Alterations, Men of great Genius have invented, and
wonderful Inventions they are! Instruments for measuring the Heat, the
Cold, the Weight, the Dryness, and the Humidity of the Air, with great
Exactness, and upon these they reason as to the changes of Weather with
great Accuracy and Certainty. It would undoubtedly be a great Folly to
pretend to question either the Truth of their Observations, or the
Usefulness of them: but then we may have leave to consider how far, and
to how great a Degree they are useful. The Thermometer measures exactly
the Degrees of Heat, but the Air must be hot to such or such a Degree
before it is discerned by this Instrument. The barometer indicates the
Weight of the Air, and the rising and falling of the Quicksilver
expresses the Alterations in its Weight with wonderful Nicety, but then
those Alterations are the Cause of this. In like manner the Hygrometer,
or Hygroscope, measures the Dryness or the Humidity of the Air very
plainly and very exactly, but the Weather must alter, must become dryer
or moister than it was, before these Alterations are visible; and
therefore, however ingenious, however curious, however useful these
Instruments may be in other Respects, they undoubtedly contribute very
little to the prognosticating a Change of Weather at a Distance; and it
is from the Experience of this, that they are so little esteemed, so
lightly regarded by the common People.

OUR Shepherd's Observations are of quite another Nature, most of them
give us a Day's Notice, many a Week's, and some extend to several
Months' Prognostication of the Changes of the Weather, and of how great
Use these may be to all Ranks and Degrees of People, to the sedentary
Valetudinarian, as well as the active Traveller, to the Sportsman who
pursues his Game, as well as to the industrious Husbandman who
constantly follows his Labour; in short, to every Man in every
Situation in some Degree or other, is so very clear and intelligible,
that it would, be a mere waste of Words, and a very idle display of
Rhetoric, to attempt the making it clearer. Every Man living would be
glad to foresee the Alterations of Weather if he could, and
consequently to most People, if not to all, these Observations,
grounded on no less than forty Years' Experience, cannot but be
acceptable.

TO make the best use of one's Talent, and to employ the Lights derived
from the Station in which Providence has placed one for the Benefit of
Mankind, is undoubtedly discharging one's Duty, answering the End of
our Creation, and corresponding with the OEconomy of Nature, which
does nothing in vain. This Proposition is equally true, let a Man's
Station be what it will. It is the Manner in which we perform, and not
the Character, that makes the Player, and in this Sense what Man is not
a Player? Here then is an Instance of one who has for many Years
studied his Part, and now communicates his Discoveries freely. In a
Physician, in a Philosopher, in a Mathematician, this would be highly
commendable, and why not in a Shepherd? We do not cast our own Parts in
the Drama of Life; no, this is performed by the great Author of Nature.
He who adjusted every Thing on Earth with such Beauty and Harmony, he
who taught the Heavenly Bodies to move; the same distributed their
several Offices to Men. May we not therefore suppose that every Man's
Part is well cast, and that our Abilities are exactly proportioned to
our Stations? If so, he who does all he can, does all that ought to be
expected from him, and merits from impartial Judges the most general
and just Applause. To be convinced of this, we need not only reflect on
the narrow and selfish Conduct of some, who either by Study or by
Chance, have acquired certain valuable Secrets, which with the utmost
Industry they conceal in order to be the more admired, or that they may
render them beneficial to themselves. How contrary the Conduct of our
Shepherd! His Pains were all his own, but the Fruit of them he thus
generously offers to the Public. Good Sense and the dictates of Nature
taught him this Maxim, _That what might benefit_ many, _should not be
concealed by_ one _from Views of_ Profit _or of_ Pride.

IN my Remarks upon the Shepherd's Rules, I have sometimes endeavoured
to support them by Authorities, which I must confess would have been of
little Use if the Author had been a Person of Learning; but when it is
considered that these Observations were purely the Effect of his own
Attention and Experience, it certainly strengthens them, and adds
greatly to their Credit that they have been esteemed evident Signs of
the same Effects, by the greatest Masters in this Kind of Science. The
Art of prognosticating the Weather may be considered as a Kind of
decyphering, and in that Art it is always allowed a point of great
Consequence, when several Masters therein agree as to the meaning of a
Character, and it is from thence very justly presumed that this
Character is rightly decyphered.

I have also endeavoured to explain most of his Observations, according
to the Rules of the new Philosophy, which, as it is grounded upon.
Experiments, so it generally speaking enables us to give a fair and
rational Account of almost all the Phænomena taken notice of by the
Shepherd of _Banbury_.

I likewise have added some other Rules in Relation to the Weather,
taken from the common sayings of our Country People, and from old
_English_ Books of Husbandry, but I have distinguished all these from
the Observations themselves, so that the Reader will have no Trouble to
discern the Text from the Commentary, or to know what belongs to the
Shepherd of _Banbury_, and what to the Editor of his Observations. This
I think may serve by the Way of Introduction, let us now proceed to the
Rules themselves.




THE

_Country Calendar_,

OR THE

SHEPHERD OF BANBURY's

OBSERVATIONS.


I.

SUN. _If the Sun rise red and firey._ } Wind and Rain.

THE Reason of this Appearance is, because the Sun shines through a
large Mass of Vapours, which occasions that red Colour that has been
always esteemed a Sign of Rain, especially if the Face of the Sun
appear bigger than it ought, for then in a few Hours the Clouds will
grow black, and be condensed into Rain, sudden and sharp, if in the
Summer, but settled and moderate if in Winter.

THE old _English_ Rule published in our first Almanacks agrees exactly
with our Author's Observation.

    If red the Sun begins his Race,
    Be sure that Rain will fall apace.

IF the Reader would see this elegantly described, the Master of Poets
hath it thus.[_a_]

    Above the Rest, the Sun, who never lies,
    Foretels the Change of Weather in the Skies;
    For if he rise unwilling to his Race,
    Clouds on his Brow, and Spots upon his Face,
    Or if thro' Mists he shoots his sullen Beams,
    Frugal of light, in loose and straggling Streams,
    Suspect a drizzling Day and southern Rain,
    Fatal to Fruits and Flocks, and promis'd Grain.

      [Footnote _a_:

      Sol quoque & exoriens, & cum se condit in undas,
      _Signa_ dabit: _Solem_ certissima signa sequuntur,
      Et quæ Mane refert, & quæ surgentibus _Astris_,
      Ille ubi nascentem _maculis_ variaverit Ortum
      Concavus in Nubem, medioque refugerit Orbe;
      Suspecti tibi sint _Imbres_. Namque urget ab alto
      Arboribusque satisque Notus Pecorique sinister.

                              Virgil. Georgic. lib. i. v. 438.]


II.

_If cloudy, and it soon decrease._ } Certain fair Weather.

I Conceive the Reason of this to be, that the Vapours being then
specifically lighter than the Air, are still rising upwards, in which
they are assisted by the Heat of the Sun Beams, agreeable to the Notion
of Dr. _Derham_, who observes, that after much cloudy Weather, it is
always fair before it rains, because the watery Vapours are not
condensed till they reach the cold upper Region, agreeable to the
common _English_ saying,

    The Evening red, and Morning grey,
    Is a Sign of a fair Day.

IT is also an Observation, of _Pliny's_ in his natural History.[_b_]

      [Footnote _b_: Nat. Hist. lib. xviii. cap. 35.]

SI ab ortu solis repellentur Nubes, & ad occasum abibunt, _Serenitatem_
denunciabunt,

                               That is,

IF at Sun rising the Clouds are driven away, and retire as it were to
the _West_, this denotes fair Weather.

THERE is an old Adage to this Purpose, which, because it is very
prettily expressed, deserves our notice, _viz._

    A red Evening and a grey Morning,
    Sets the Pilgrim a Walking.

                          In _French_ thus.

    Le rogue Soir, & blanc Matin;
    Font rejouvir le Pelerin.

                     The _Italians_ say the same.

    Sera rosa, & nigro Matino;
    Allegra il Peregrino.


III.

CLOUDS _Small and round, like a   }
Dappley-grey, with a_ North-Wind. } Fair Weather for 2 or 3 Days.

THIS is differently expressed by other Authors. My Lord _Bacon_ tells
us, that if Clouds appear white, and drive to the _N. W._ it is a Sign
of several Days fair Weather.

OUR old _English_ Almanacks have a Maxim to this Purpose.

    If woolly Fleeces spread the Heavenly Way,
    Be sure no Rain disturbs the Summer Day.

AND _Pliny_ to the same Purpose.[_c_]

      [Footnote _c_: Ubi supra.]

SI Sol oriens cingetur Orbe, & postea totus defluxerit æqualiter,
_Serenitatem_ dabit.

                               That is,

IF the rising Sun be incompassed with an Iris, or Circle of white
Clouds, and they equally fly away, this is a Sign of fair Weather.

THERE is another _English_ Proverb worth remembering.

    In the Decay of the Moon,
    A cloudy Morning bodes a fair Afternoon.


IV.

_Large like Rocks._----Great Showers.

IN the old Almanacks we have this Sign of the Weather thus expressed.

    When Clouds appear like Rocks and Towers,
    The Earth's refresh'd by frequent Showers.

THE Reason of this seems to be, that the watery Vapours are then
condensed, or condensing, which gives them this rough and ragged
Appearance, and as soon as the thin Films that retain the Water are
broke by this Pressure, these heavy Clouds descend in Rain.

THESE Observations, as well as some that follow, are agreeable to all
Climates, which is the Reason that they appear in so many different
Authors, and have been taken notice of in so many Ages. This however
does not at all diminish the Credit, or the Merit of our Shepherd's
Observations, who certainly drew them not from Books, but from his own
Experience, and therefore their agreeing so well with the Rules of
other great Masters, ought to establish his Authority in such Cases as
are not supported by alike concurrence from ancient or modern Writers,
the Testimony of Nature is always sufficient Evidence.


V.

_If small Clouds increase_----Much Rain.

THIS and the following Observation cannot well be understood, without
giving some Account of Clouds in general. The Atmosphere is supposed to
extend itself about five Miles round this Globe of Earth, and within
that Space move all kind of Vapours exhaled by the Sun's Force, or
protruded by the subterraneous Heat. The ascending of these Vapours
into the Air, depends upon many things, and therefore as different as
its Causes; for instance, their ascent depends in the first place on
the degree of Heat with which they are drawn up or forced out; next
upon the Lightness of the Vapours themselves; thirdly, on the Density
or Rarity of the Air through which they pass; and lastly, on the Force
and Direction of the Winds, which they encounter in their Passage.

ACCORDING to the Nature of these Vapours, and the Circumstance
attending their Passage, they appear to us differently below. For if
they be extremely subtile they mount very high, and there, according to
the Sentiment of Sir _Isaac Newton_, form by Refraction the Azure, or
blue Colour, that over-spreads the Sky in serene Weather. Clouds, while
they remain visible, do not rise above the Height of a Mile; and we
always observe, that the highest are of a very light Colour, and hardly
seen. If, therefore, small Clouds increase, it shews, that the
Disposition of the Air is such, as that these Clouds cannot rise
therein, either from their own Weight, the want of a protrusive Force,
or from the falling of the Wind, which in cloudy Weather is always a
Sign of Rain.


VI.

_If large Clouds decrease_----Fair Weather.

THE same kind of Reasoning accounts very clearly for this Prognostick,
since it shews, that the Vapours are either exhaled by the Sun's Heat,
or are driven off by Winds, and so resolved into smaller Clouds,
capable of ascending higher in the Atmosphere; all which are
Circumstances that secure us from Rain, and afford us a certainty of
fair Weather.

IT is, however, to be observed, that large black Clouds are frequently,
in a Summer Evening, melted into Dews; and this much more frequently
happens in the Autumn, because the Evenings are then cooler, and the
Vapours more easily condensed for that Reason. In all Observations of
this Sort, there is a great degree of Prudence and good Sense required
to apply them, and hence it very frequently happens that such
Observations are condemned as treacherous and abusive, merely because
those who would employ them want the Sagacity which is requisite to
understand them clearly.


VII.

MISTS. _If they rise in low Ground and soon vanish._ } Fair Weather.

THIS is a sure Sign and very well expressed, that is, clearly, and, in
few Words, which is the Excellency of such Aphorisms. In order to be
convinced of its good Sense and Certainty, we must consider a little
what _Mists_ are, whence they rise, and what becomes of them.

MISTS are, strictly speaking, uncompacted Exhalations, which while they
fleet near the Earth are styled _Mists_, but when they ascend into the
Air, are called _Clouds_. If therefore, rising out of low Ground, they
are driven along the Plain, and are soon lost to the Sight, it must
arise from some of these Causes. That there is an Air abroad sufficient
to divide and resolve them, or the Heat of the Sun has been strong
enough to exhale them, that is, to rarify them, so as to render them
lighter than the Air through which they were to pass. Whichever way
this happens the Maxim remains unimpeached.


VIII.

_If they rise to the Hill-tops._ } Rain in a Day or two.

WHEN Mists are very, heavy in themselves, and rise only by the Action
of that protrusive Force, exerted by the subterranean Fire, they can
rise no higher than where the Gravitation becomes superior to that
protrusive force, for then they descend again by their own Weight, and
this occasions the Appearance mentioned in the Observation of their
hanging upon Hill-tops, where they are very soon condensed, and fall
down in Rain.

THERE was formerly a very idle and ill grounded Distinction between
moist and dry Exhalations, whereas in Truth all Exhalations are moist,
or in other Words are watery Steams thrown off by Bodies respectively
dry, and the former Distinction was invented only to solve these
Phænomena of which we have been speaking, that is, the Mist rising and,
dispersing without Rain, and the Mist condensed and resolved into Rain,
which as I have shewn may be much better explained without any such
Distinction.


IX.

_A general Mist before the Sun }
rises, near the full Moon._    } Fair Weather.

THIS is a general and a very extensive Observation, which enables us to
judge of the Weather for about a Fortnight, and there is very great
Reason to believe that it will very rarely deceive us. In order to
convince the Reader of this, it will be necessary to explain, as far as
we are able, the Causes of this.

MISTS are observed to happen when the Mercury in a Barometer is either
very low of very high. They happen when it is high after the Region of
the Air has continued calm a good while, and in the mean time a great
Abundance of Vapours and Exhalations have been accumulated, making the
Air dark by their quantity, and the disorderly Disposition of their
parts. They happen when the Mercury is low, sometimes because the
Rarity of the Air renders it unable to sustain the Vapours, which
therefore descend and fall through it.

BUT none of these Cases agree with the Observation at the Head of the
Page, and therefore to form a true judgment of the Weather, we must
distinguish between them and the Case which explains the Observation.


X.

_If in the new Moon._----Rain in the old.

WHEN Exhalations rise copiously from the Earth into the Region of the
Air, and the Air itself is in a proper Disposition, they ascend to a
great Height, and continue a long Time before they are condensed, which
accounts very clearly and philosophically for the Interval of fair
Weather between the rising of these Mists, and their falling down again
in Showers. Their ascending about Sun-rise is a Proof that the Air is
thin, but at the same time of a Force sufficient to sustain them, since
if the Mists were not specifically lighter than the Air itself they
could not ascend.

WHEN the Moon is at the full, and such Exhalations rise plentifully,
the time necessary for them to float in the Atmosphere, before they are
condensed into Clouds and Rain, extends, generally speaking, beyond the
Period of that Moon, and therefore the Observation directs us to expect
_fair Weather_.


XI.

_If in the old._----Rain in the New.

BUT as it is observed not only in this Climate, but all the World over,
that great Changes of Weather happen near the Change of the Moon, it
follows that this is the Season when these Exhalations that ascend so
plentifully at Sun-rising are condensed, and consequently is the Season
when we ought to expect _Rain_.

IF therefore the Exhalations rise in the new Moon, it is a Sign that
the Air is in a fit disposition to sustain and support them for a
considerable Time, and therefore we have Reason to expect that they
should continue floating till the next regular change of Weather, that
is, till the old of the Moon, or rather till towards the next Change,
and therefore the Observation is very cautiously and very properly
worded, directing us to expect Rain _in_ the old, and _in_ the new, and
not _at_ the old or new, because it is observed that these Changes of
Weather happen not exactly _at_ the Change of the Moon, but a Day or
two before or after, of which the Reader will meet with many Examples
in Captain _Dampier's_ History of Winds and Storms at Sea.


XII.

WINDS. _Observe, that in eight Years' Time there is as much South
       West Wind, as North East, and consequently as many wet Years
       as dry._

THIS must be allowed a very extraordinary Aphorism from a Country
Shepherd, but at the same Time it is very agreeable to the Observations
of Dr. _Hooke_, Dr. _Derham_, Dr. _Grew_, and other able Naturalists,
who with unwearied Pains and Diligence have calculated the Quantity of
Rain falling in one Year, and compared it with what fell in another.
Lord _Bacon_, that Honour to our Nation and the Age which produced him,
informs us, that it was an old Opinion there was a total Revolution of
the Weather once in forty Years, and wishes it was inquired into. I
cannot tell whether this has ever been done or not, but I think there
is good Reason to conclude that there is a natural Balance established
of wet and dry Weather, as of Light and Darkness, Heat and Cold, and
other such like Variations.

IT may not be amiss to caution the Reader against a Mistake into which
the Manner of this Rule being stated may easily lead him. It is this,
that South West Winds cause Rain, and North East Winds fair Weather,
which however is not a Thing clear or certain by any means. This indeed
is true, that South West Winds and Rain, North East Winds and fair
Weather come together, generally speaking. But the Question is, which
causes the other, and a more difficult Question cannot easily be
stated, because there seems to be Facts on both sides. South West Winds
seldom continue long without Rain, this seems to prove the affirmative,
but on the other Hand, when in hard Weather, Rain begins to fall, the
Wind commonly veers to the South West, this looks as if the Rain caused
the Wind.

BUT to keep close to the Shepherd's Observation. There is one Thing
seems strongly to confirm it, which is this, that in any given Place
the Quantity of Rain one Year with another is found to be the same by
Experience, according to which the following Table has been calculated,
for the mean Quantity of Rain falling one Year with another in those
Places that are mentioned, and on this Proportion the other seems to be
founded.

    At Harlem      24 Inches
       Delf        27
       Dort        40
       Middleburg  33
       Paris       20
       Lyons       37
       Rome        20
       Padua       37-1/2
       Pisa        34-1/4
       Ulm         27
       Berlin      19-1/2
    In Lancashire  40
       Essex       19-1/2


XIII.

_When the Wind turns to North East, and it continues two Days
without Rain, and does not turn South the third Day, nor Rain the
third Day, it is likely to continue North East for eight or nine
Days_, all fair; _and then to come to the South again_.

IN my Opinion this and the subsequent Remarks depend entirely upon
Observations, and may serve rather to found an Hypothesis, than seem be
deduced from one. That the Variations of the Wind depend on certain
Causes, and may consequently be reduced to Rules, is highly probable,
and such Observations as these render it in a manner certain. But to
explore these Causes, and to explain them in such a manner as to
account for these Phænomena in a satisfactory manner, requires not only
great Sagacity but much Experience, and many Years' Observation, which,
however, considering the great Benefits that would result to Mankind
from establishing such a THEORY, would be Time well bestowed.

WE may however easily conceive that a constant North East Wind must be
accompanied with fair Weather. For whatever the causes of Winds may be,
yet on this side the Equator, a strong and settled North East always
buoys up the Clouds and keeps them suspended. This has been long
observed by, and passes for a settled point amongst Seamen. The Reason
of it however cannot be so easily assigned, at least a satisfactory
Reason, for as to Suppositions, every fanciful Man can furnish them at
Pleasure.

THIS, as well as the following Observations, very plainly and clearly
prove, that in this Part of the World fair Weather attends one Wind,
and wet another, but which is the Cause and which the Effect, or
whether both are not the Effects of some other Cause, I pretend not
absolutely to determine. But inasmuch as it is certainly known, that
Rains attend in other Climates those Winds that are here attended with
fair Weather, it seems more agreeable to suppose that rainy Weather is
occasioned chiefly by West Winds, because loaded with moist Vapours
from the Sea.


XIV.

_If it turn out again out of the South to the North East with Rain,
and continues in the North East two Days without Rain, and neither
turns South nor rains the third Day_, it is like to continue North
East for two or three months.

_The Wind will finish these Turns in three Weeks._

THIS Observation is of the same nature with the former, and is plainly
deduced from long experience. Our Author seems to contradict himself in
saying that these Winds finish their Turns in three Weeks, but his true
Meaning certainly is, that they are \about three Weeks in turning from
the South to the North East again. Some very great men have laid it
down as a thing certain, that the Variations of the Wind are to be
accounted for by the Alteration of the Balance of the Air, occasioned
by the different Effects of Heat and Cold; but other Writers again
insist very copiously on the Effects which Winds have upon the Air, and
thus confound us in a Circle of Causes and Effects, whence it is plain
that they do not thoroughly understand the Subject themselves, and
therefore it is no Wonder that they are not able to explain it to
others.

IN some Parts of the World, and especially between the Tropicks, the
Winds are regular, and therefore our Philosophers seem to talk more
rationally about them. But in our Northern Countries the Alterations of
the Wind are so frequent, sudden, and often so little agreeable to the
Season, that such general Reasonings will by no Means serve to explain
them. It is however very reasonable to suppose that the same general
Cause prevails here as between the Tropics, but with less Certainty,
because the Power of the Sun is not so great, and the Determinations of
the Winds depend on the Situation of Mountains, Rocks, and Woods, which
direct the Air driving against them into certain Courses, so that it is
impossible to explain, or indeed to judge of the Course of the Winds
till the Country is thoroughly known, and all those Eminences that can
affect the Winds are well considered.

FROM these Reflections the Value of our Shepherd's Observations will
clearly appear. He was not Philosopher enough to talk in this Style,
but by a long and steady Attention he came to know, experimentally,
what perhaps few Philosophers, with all their Sagacity, would have been
able to have found out.


XV.

S. W. WINDS. _After a northerly Wind for the most Part two months
             or more, and then coming South, there are usually_
             three or four fair Days at first, and then, on the fourth
             or fifth Day, comes Rain, _or else the Wind turns North
             again_, and continues dry.

THIS is likewise a very judicious and very useful Observation, and yet
it is not a difficult matter to account for it. It is a common
Observation, and a very true one, that there is usually fair Weather
before a settled course of Rain. The Winds that bring the dark rainy
Clouds that obscure the Sky, and cause dull cloudy Weather, often raise
these Vapours to such a height, that they are attracted into the cold
Region above our Sight, till being condensed there, they fall down upon
us again in Snow or Rain, according to our Author's Observation.

BUT if, after a seeming Tendency to Rain, there follow several Days of
fine Weather, it is a certain Indication that the Temper of the Air is
altered, and that these Vapours had been driven off before they had
time to condense, which is confirmed by the Change of the Wind on such
Occasions.

ALL these Observations are to be understood in a proper Latitude, and
not strictly and according to the very Letter. For Rain may fall the
sixth or seventh Day, or the Wind may change the second or third.
Besides, a Man who would make use of these Observations in the Country,
must consider attentively the Situation of the Place where he lives,
the bearing of the Sea, Marshes, Ponds, Lakes, Woods, Mountains, Rocks,
_&c._ For without making proper Allowances for these, all such
Observations on the Weather will be apt to fail him.


XVI.

_If it return to the South within a Day or two without Rain, and turn
Northward with Rain, and return to the South, in one or two Days, as
before, two or three Times together after this Sort_, then it is
like to be in the South, or South West, two or three Months together,
_as it was in the North before_.

_The Winds will finish these Turns in a Fortnight._

THIS may appear a little perplexed to an ordinary Reader, but a little
Attention will make it very clear and plain; and whoever considers what
mighty Uses may be made of the Foresight of Weather for a Month or two,
will not think this Labour ill bestowed. I must confess I look upon
these three Rules in Relation to the Wind as the most useful in the
whole Collection. Especially to Farmers and Country People, to whom
they are of the greatest Consequence.

BUT it is a common Thing for such People to say, what Certainty is
there that these Rules will prove true, what Probability is there that
the Wind should continue so long in one Quarter, and then so long in
another, how shall we be satisfied that there is any truth in this; or,
if we cannot be satisfied as to the Truth of it, why should we depend
upon any such like Observations?

TO this I answer, that they may have reasonable Satisfaction given them
on this Head. Some of our great Naturalists, who had kept Journals of
the Weather for many Years, have found that the same Wind blows every
Year very near the same number of Days, and that there is a regular
Continuance of different Winds annually in every Country. For Instance,

At _Utrecht_ they blow thus,

    The N. Wind     42 Days.
    The N. W.       33
    The W.          77
    The S. W.       58
    The South       33
    The S. E.       26
    The E.          53
    The N. E.       43
                   ---
                   365

IT is a Thing plain to every Capacity, that a Journal or Diary of the
Winds may be kept any where, and if from such a Journal it appears that
a given Wind blows for a certain Number of Days, then it follows, that
if these can be determined with Certainty, the Time of their blowing
may also be determined, at least with great Probability, which is as
satisfactory an Answer as can be justly expected, because it shews that
there is just and rational Ground for confiding in such Observations,
when confirmed by long Experience.


XVII.

_Fair Weather for a Week, with a Southern Wind, is like to_
produce a great Drought, _if there has been much Rain out of the
South before. The Wind usually turns from North to South, with a quiet
Wind without Rain, but returns to the North, with a strong Wind and
Rain; the strongest Winds are when it turns from South, to North by
West._

N. B. _When the North Wind first clears the Air (which is usually
once a Week) be sure of a fair Day or two._

OBSERVATIONS of this Nature upon Winds have employed the ablest Heads
in all Ages. _Pliny_ the great Naturalist has left us a great deal upon
this Subject, which plainly proves that it has been the Opinion of the
ablest and wisest Men that Study and Experience might reduce even
Things of such seeming Incertainty under stated Rules, and within the
Bounds of a regular System. For Instance he tells us.

    "IN _Africa_ the South Wind is serene, the North East cloudy.
    All the Winds have their Turns. To judge rationally of their
    Changes, the fourth Day of the Moon is to be regarded.--The South
    Wind blows stronger than the North East, because the former rises
    from the Bottom, whereas the latter comes from the Surface of the
    Sea. It is for this Reason that those Earthquakes are most
    dangerous that follow after a South Wind."

IN order to understand this Notion of _Pliny_, we need only advert
to the Account given us by the Reverend Mr. _Robinson_, in his
natural History of _Westmoreland_, which is exceedingly curious,
and well worthy of the Reader's perusal. This ingenious Gentleman is of
Opinion that Winds have their original from the Sea, of which he gives
the following very probable Account.

    "IT, that is, the Wind, proceeds from vast swarms of nitrous
    Particles arising from the Bottom of the Sea, which being put into
    Motion, either by the central Fire, or by the Heat and Fermentation
    which abound in this great Body of the Earth; and therefore the
    first Commotion excited by the said Fermentation, we call a _Bottom
    Wind_, which is presently discovered by Porpusses and other Sea
    Fish, which delight in sporting and playing upon the Waves of the
    Sea, and by their playing give the Mariners the first Notice of an
    approaching Storm.

    "WHEN these nitrous swarms are risen towards the Surface of the Sea
    in a dark Night, they cause such a shining light upon the Waves, as
    if the Sea was on fire. And being delivered from the brackish
    Water, and received into the open Air, those fiery and shining
    Meteors which fix upon the Masts and Sides of the Ships, and are
    only nitrous particles condensed by the circumambient Cold, and
    like that which the Chymists call Phosphorus, or artificial
    Glow-worm, shine and cast a Light but have no Heat: This gives the
    Mariners the second Notice that the Storm is rising, for upon the
    first breaking out of the Wind, the Sea begins to be rough, and the
    Waves swell and rise, when at the same time the Air is calm and
    clear.

    "THIS boiling Fermentation of the Sea causes the Vapours to rise,
    which by the Intenseness of the circumambient Cold are condensed
    into thick Clouds, and fall down in Storms of Wind and Rain, first
    upon the Sea, from whence they rose, and then the attractive Power
    of the Mountain-cold, by a secret Magnetism between Vapour and
    Cold, attracts the waterish Vapours, intermixt with nitrous
    Particles, to the high Tops of Mountains and Hills, where they hang
    hovering in thick Fogs and waterish Mists, until the atmospherical
    Heat rarefies the nitrous Part of the Fog (which is always
    uppermost, and appears white and translucent) into brisk Gales of
    Wind, and the Intenseness of atmospherical Cold having attracted
    the Vapours into the colder Regions of the Air, where being
    condensed into Clouds, the Wind breaks, dissipates, and drives them
    before it, till they fall down in Rain, and water the Surface of
    the Earth. And this seems to be the Reason why, in _Egypt_, and
    those level Countries where they have no Mountains, they have
    little Wind and less Rain."


XVIII.

CLOUDS. _In Summer or Harvest, when the Wind has been South two or
        three Days, and it grows very hot, and you see Clouds rise with
        great white Tops like Towers, as if one were upon the Top of
        another, and joined together with black on the nether Side_,
        there will be Thunder and Rain suddenly.

WE may very easily account for this Observation, because in Fact the
Signs here mentioned are no other than Nature's apparatus for a Storm
of Thunder and Lightning, which will be perfectly understood by
attending a little to the Causes of these Meteors. Lightning is a great
flame, very bright, extending every way to a great distance, suddenly
darting upwards, there ending, so that it is only momentaneous. The
Matter which produces the Fire, is the Oil of Plants, attenuated by the
heat of the Day, and raised on high. Then whatever has exhaled from the
Earth that is sulphureous or Oily, which is dispersed up and down in
the Atmosphere, and is not continuous, is set on Fire by Turns, and the
Flame dilates itself as far as the Tract of that Exhalation reaches.
Some other Substance pendant and floating in the Air meets with this
also, with which it excites an effervescence, takes Fire and flashes
along with it. Thunder is another bright Flame, rising on a sudden,
moving with great Velocity through the Air, according to any
Determination upwards from the Earth horizontally, obliquely, downwards
in a right Line, or in several right Lines as it were in serpentine
Tracts joined at various Angles, and commonly ending with a loud Noise
or Rattling.

IT is observed that it thunders most when the Wind blows from the
South, and least when it blows from the East. The great Principle of
Thunder is Sulphur, as is evident from the Smell it leaves behind it;
but in order to occasion such an Explosion, there must be other
Ingredients mixed therewith, especially Nitre, of which the Air is
always full, besides other Things, of which it is impossible to give
any Account. The Tracts of this Sort of Matter fly about in the Air,
and are as it were Lines of Gunpowder, and as in the firing of that
Powder, the Fire begins at one End, and pursuing its Aliment proceeds
to the other Extremity, and so the whole Mass of Powder is fired; we
may from thence account for the Phænomenon of Thunder. For in like
Manner those inflamed Tracts which are suspended in the Air, flash from
a Flame that runs from one Extreme to the other, wherever the Vein of
Nourishment leads it. Hence those Rays of Thunder, which seem to be
brandished through the Air, and sometimes to be split in two or more
Tracts, and sometimes to return back, at other Times to be projected in
Lines that are joined by various Angles, and this only because the
Flame meets with Tracts lying in various Situations that cohere one
with another. Therefore Thunder seems now to run horizontally, now from
above downwards, now upwards from the Earth, for if the Matter of
Thunder pressing out of the Earth is enflamed near the Ground, the
Flame darting upwards, the Thunder will seem to be projected out of the
Earth. If the same Tract be set on Fire at its upper end, the Flame
will move downwards, and the Thunder will seem to descend out of the
Sky.

HENCE we easily understand how it comes to thunder oftener in one Place
than another, but most frequently in those where the Soil produces
odoriferous Herbs, and abounds with Sulphur, and where the People are
much exposed to the extreme Heat of the Sun. Thunder is less frequent
in Places where there are few odoriferous Herbs, very little Sulphur,
or where the Climate is watery and moist. For Instance, it thunders
very much in _Italy_ and _Sicily_, and very rarely in _Egypt_, and the
adjacent Countries. If it be demanded how it comes to thunder in the
midst of the Ocean? The Answer is easy, because from the Bottom of the
Ocean vast Tracts of sulphureous Matter are cast up through the Waters;
as it happens to spring Waters in several Places, the Streams of which
will take Fire from a lighted Candle. For sulphureous Exhalations
bursting out together with the Waters, the fulmineous Matter in the Air
is set on Fire when it meets with Exhalations or Vapours with which it
can excite a vehement Effervescence. It is very clear from this
Account, that the Clouds mentioned at the Top of the twenty-eighth Page
are thunder Clouds, or Clouds big with the Materials of Thunder.


XIX.

_If two such Clouds arise, one on either Hand_, it is Time to make
haste to shelter.

AS this Observation is of the same Nature with the former, we shall
continue our Remarks. The Reason why it seldom thunders in Winter is,
because the exterior Parts of the Earth are so contracted by the cold
Snow and Ice, that Sulphur cannot perspire in any great Quantities, but
as soon as the Earth begins to be opened by the Sun in the Spring,
something expires in the Month of _April_ which takes Fire. But by the
greater Heat of the Sun penetrating deeper into the Earth, the Cortex
is more opened in _May_, and now there is a more copious Expiration of
the fulminating Matter, and whatever was collected and shut up in
Winter, is now released and snatched up in the Air, and thence proceeds
the most frequent Thunders in the Month of _May_, and chiefly when a
very hot Day or two has gone before. A less Quantity of the same Matter
remains in the upper Cortex of the Earth for the Month of _June_, but
in the mean Time a Stock arises out of the deeper Bowels of the Earth,
which is attenuated and prepared, so that by the very fervent Heat of
_July_ it is elevated, as it were in heaps, and set on Fire. Hence
Thunder is as frequent in _July_ as in _May_. And the Heat decreasing
in the succeeding Months, the Exhalation of the fulminating Matter out
of the Earth is more sparing, and thence, also, the thunder is less
frequent, till in October, and the other winter months, the earth is
bound up with us, and hardly expires any more. Hence we see why it very
seldom thunders when the northerly winds blow; for these winds
constringe the earth with their cold, and so hinder the fulminating
matter from bursting forth; and when they are burst forth and floating
in the air, they hinder their effervency. But on the contrary, when the
warm and moist south winds blow, which open every thing, the earth
likewise is opened, and abundance of fulminating matter is expired and
ascends on high, which is there easily inflamed.

AS the flame runs very swiftly, it seems to carry along with it
particles, which it could not so easily set on fire, and when any of
these particles are drawn together, and heated to a certain degree,
they at last take fire, with a sudden and great explosion, and thereby
produce what we call a thunder Clap. Now, though this be only a single
sound, yet it is often heard in the form of a great murmuring noise of
a long continuance; sometimes for thirty or forty seconds, because of
its various repercussions by the clouds and terrestrial obstacles.
Hence it is, that in vales, which are surrounded by mountains of a
different Height, there is a terrible and long continued Bellowing of
thunder Claps. Whereas for one Explosion it has been observed that
there is but one Clap. Yet however if the Flame set Fire to two, three,
or more fulmineous Tracts, each of them at last will end in a Clap, and
thus several Sounds may be heard together, or quickly succeeding one
another.


XX.

_If you see a Cloud rise against the Wind or side Wind, when that
Cloud comes up to you, the Wind will blow the same Way that the Cloud
came. And the same Rule holds of a clear Place, when all the Sky is
equally thick, except one clear Edge._

THIS seems to arise from hence, that Wind being nothing more than Air
in motion, the Effects of it first discover themselves above, and
actually drive such Clouds before them. This was long ago observed by
_Pliny_. When Clouds, says he, float about in a serene Sky, from
whatever Quarter they come, you may expect Winds. If they are collected
together in one Place, they will be dispersed by the approach of the
Sun. If these Clouds come from the North East, they denote Winds; if
from the South great Rains. But let them come from what Quarter they
will, if you see them driving thus about Sunset, they are sure signs of
an approaching Tempest.

IF the Clouds look dusky, or of a tarnish silver Colour, and move very
slowly, it is a Sign of Hail. But to speak more plainly, those very
Clouds are laden with Hail, which if there be a Mixture of Blue in the
Clouds will be small, but if very yellow, large. Small scattering
Clouds that fly very high, especially, from the South West, denote
Whirlwinds. The shooting of fallen Stars through them, is a Sign of
Thunder. We meet with many Observations of this sort in our old Writers
on Husbandry, and we have abundance of Proverbs relating to this
Subject which are worth observing, and the rather, because most of them
are not peculiar to our Language only, but common to us with many of
our Neighbours. It is the Remark of Lord _Bacon_, and a very judicious
Remark too, that Proverbs are the Philosophy of the common People, that
is to say, they are trite Remarks founded in Truth, and fitted for
Memory. I must confess that there are some of them that seem either
false, or of no great Consequence, but then I am apt to suspect, that
by various Accidents we have lost their true Meaning, or else, that in
length of Time, they have been altered and corrupted, till they have
little or no meaning at all.

I cannot help taking Notice in Regard to the Rule before us, that
Captain _Dampier_ tells us in the _East-Indies_, they have always
Notice of a Tuffoon by the Skies being first clear and calm, and then a
small white Cloud hanging precisely in the Point from whence the Storm
comes, where he observes that it remains sometimes twelve Hours or
more, and adds, that as soon as it begins to move, the Wind presently
follows it. When Sir _John Bury_, who died an _English_ Admiral, had
the Command of a small Frigate in the _West-Indies_, he escaped a
Hurricane in the _Leward_ Islands by taking the Advice of a poor Negro,
who shewed him a small white Cloud at a Distance, and assured him that
when it came to the _Zenith_, the Hurricane would infallibly begin, as
indeed it did.


XXI.

_Sudden Rains never_ last long: _But when the Air grows thick by
Degrees, and the Sun, Moon, and Stars shine dimmer and dimmer, then
it is like_ to rain six Hours usually.

RAIN is, properly speaking, a Multitude of small watery Drops, falling
from the upper Air at different Seasons. When the upper Regions become
cold of a sudden, the watery Clouds are condensed and fall in hasty
Showers. It is observed that mountainous Countries have most Rain, and
the Reason seems to be the Winds driving the Clouds against the Rocks
and Hills, and thereby compressing them in such a Manner, that they are
immediately dissolved, and fall as it were at once. This is the Reason
that in _Lancashire_ there falls twice as much Rain as in _Essex_, and
it is probably from the same Cause, that in the Ocean, over-against the
mountainous Coast of _Guinea_, showers sometimes fall as it were by
Pailfuls.

THIS Observation of our Shepherd is very just and reasonable, and I
dare say will hardly ever fail such as observe it. The Dimness of the
Stars and other heavenly Bodies, is one of the surest Signs of very
rainy Weather. It is likewise to be observed that when the Stars look
bigger than usual, and are pale and dull and without Rays, this
undoubtedly indicates that the Clouds are condensing into Rain, which
will very soon fall; and it has been observed that when the Air grows
thick by Degrees, and the Light of the Sun lessens so as not to be
discerned at all, and again when the Moon or Stars have the same
Appearances, a continued Rain for at least six Hours is sure to follow.

TO be the better informed in such Cases, it is best to have Recourse to
a variety of Signs, for it is not only the Clouds and Sky, or the Sun,
Moon, and Stars, that gives us previous Notice of rainy Weather, but
almost every Thing in the Creation, and Vegetables particularly. As for
Instance, the Pimpernel, which is a very common flower, shuts itself up
extremely close against rainy Weather. In like manner the Trefoil
swells in the Stalk against Rain, so that it stands up very stiff, but
the Leaves droop and hang down. Even the most solid Bodies are affected
by this Change of the Atmosphere, for Stones seem to sweat, and Wood
swells, the Air driving the moist Particles with which it is filled
into the Pores of dry Wood especially, makes it swell prodigiously, and
this is the Reason the Doors and Windows are hard to shut in rainy
Weather.

THIS is so true, that there has been a Method found of dividing
Mill-stones by the mere Force of the Air, which is done in this Manner.
They divide a Block of this kind of Stone as big as a large rolling
Stone, into as many Parts as they design to make Millstones, and in the
Circles where this Block is to be divided, they pierce several Holes,
which they fill with allow Wood dried in an Oven, and expose the Stone
to the Air, in moist Weather; when the Wood swells to such a Degree as
to split the Stone as effectually, as if it was by iron Wedges driven
by Sledge-Hammers. This curious and extraordinary Method of dividing
Mill-stones is related by the famous Mr. _Ozanam_ of his own Knowledge.


XXII.

_If it begin to Rain from the South, with a high Wind for two or
three Hours, and the Wind falls, but the Rain continues_, it is like
to rain twelve Hours or more, and does usually rain till a strong North
Wind clears the Air. _These long Rains seldom hold above twelve
Hours, or happen above_ once a Year.

THIS depends entirely upon Observation, and Experience shews us that
whenever the Wind falls, Rain follows. It has been likewise observed,
that when the Wind changes often there fall heavy Rains. All these
Alterations in the Atmosphere, are less observed by Men than by
Animals, for two Reasons. The first is, that we live much within Doors,
by which they are less obvious to us, and it is for this Reason that
the Husbandman, Seamen, Fishermen, but above all Shepherds, who are
more in the open Air than other Men, are better acquainted with, and
more able to distinguish and judge of the Signs of the Alteration of
the Weather, than those who live altogether within Doors, or go out but
seldom. Another Reason is our having so many Things to mind, which
takes off our Thoughts, and renders us less attentive to the Signals
which would give up Notice of such Alterations. It is for this Reason
that we ought to serve ourselves of that Sort of Instinct which Nature
has given to other Animals, and which as it is a Gift of Nature, is in
a Manner infallible.

THUS if small Birds prune themselves and duck and make a shew of
washing. If Crows make a great Noise in the Evening, if Geese gaggle
more than usual, these are all Signs of Rain, because these Animals
love wet Weather, and rejoice at the approach of it. On the other Hand,
if Oxen lie on their Right Sides, look towards the South, and lick
their Hoofs, if Cows look up in the Air, and snuff it, if Asses bray
violently, and if Cocks crow at unusual Hours, but especially when a
Hen and Chickens crowd into the House, these are sure Signs of Rain.

INSECTS also are very sensible of such Changes of Weather. Frogs croak
more than ordinary, Worms creep out of the Ground, Moles throw up more
Earth than usual, because such Weather is more agreeable to them;
Hornets, Wasps, and Gnats, sting more frequently against wet Weather
than in fair. Spiders are restless and uneasy, and frequently drop from
the Wall, the humid Air getting into their Webs and making them heavy.
But the surest and most certain Sign is taken from Bees, which are more
incommoded by Rain than almost any other Creatures, and therefore, as
soon as the Air begins to grow heavy, and the Vapours to condense, they
will not fly from their Hives, but either remain in them all Day, or
else fly but to a small Distance.


XXIII.

_If it begins to rain an Hour or two before Sun-rising, it is like to
be fair_ before Noon, and so continue that Day, _but if the Rain
begin an Hour or two after Sun-rising, it is like_ to Rain all that
Day, _except the Rainbow be seen before it rains_.

THIS is a short, clear, and easy Observation, and therefore I shall not
dwell long upon it, but rather entertain the Reader with a few
Observations on the Rainbow. Whenever it appears, things are thus
circumstanced. The Spectator has the Sun behind him, and Clouds with
the Bow in them before him. Sometimes there are two and even three Bows
seen, but this is very rare. The Colours in the Bow are ranged in this
Order, _viz._ Violet, Purple, Blue, Green, Yellow, Orange, Red. After a
long Drought the Bow is a certain Sign of Rain, if after much Wet fair
Weather. If the Green be large and bright it is a Sign of Rain, but if
the Red be the strongest Colour, then it denotes Wind and Rain
together. If the Bow breaks up all at once there will follow serene and
settled Weather. If the Bow be seen in the Morning small Rain will
follow. If at Noon, settled and heavy Rains; if at Night, fair Weather.
The Appearance of two or three Rainbows shews fair Weather for the
present, but settled and heavy Rains in two or three Days' Time.

LUNAR Rainbows are sometimes, but very seldom seen, they are extremely
beautiful, but much less than those that appear in the Day time, and a
yellow, or rather a straw Colour prevails most. As they happen so
seldom, they cannot well be reckoned amongst the Signs of Weather. But
now, after speaking of so many different Methods of judging when rainy
Weather will be of a short or long Continuance: Give me leave to
describe two or three Instruments easily made, which will shew the
Alterations of the Weather certainly, constantly, and early enough for
most Uses.

THERE were some Years ago a Sort of Toys sold, with a Man and a Woman
so fixed before the Door of a House, that at the Approach of wet
Weather the Woman entered it, and when the Weather grew fair the Man.
This was done by the Help of a Bit of Catgut, which shrinks in wet
Weather, and stretches again when it is fair. This appears better by a
Line and Plummet, especially if the Line be made of good Whipcord, that
is well dried, for then if it be hung against a Wainscot, and a Line
drawn under it exactly where the Plummet reaches, in very moderate
Weather it will be found to rise above it before Rain, and to sink
below when the Weather is like to become fair; but the best Instrument
of all is a good Pair of Scales, in one of which let there be a brass
Weight of a Pound, and in the other a Pound of Salt, or of Salt-Petre
well dried, a Stand being placed under the Scale, so as to hinder its
falling too low. When it is inclined to rain the Salt will swell, and
sink the Scale, when the Weather is growing fair, the brass Weight will
regain its Ascendancy.


XXIV.

SPRING and SUMMER. _If the last eighteen Days of_ February _and
                   ten Days of_ March _be for the most part_
                   rainy, _then the_ Spring and Summer _Quarters
                   are like to be so too: and I never knew_ a great
                   Drought _but it entered_ in that Season.

IT is easy to discover by Observation whether this Rule be well or ill
founded, that is to say, whether our Shepherd's Observation will serve
for other Places or not, and where it will serve and where not. But it
may not be amiss to remark that it is highly probable, or rather
absolutely certain, that the Weather in one Season of the Year
determines the Weather in another. For instance, if there be a rainy
Winter then the Autumn will be dry, if a dry Spring, then a rainy
Winter. Our Forefathers had abundance of odd Sayings upon this Subject,
and some Proverbs for every Month in the Year, but I doubt they were
indifferently founded, however there can be no Harm in observing them,
in order to discover whether there be any thing in them or not.

    _Janiveer_ freeze the Pot by the Fire

    If the Grass grow in _Janiveer_
    It grows the worse for't all the Year.
    The _Welchman_ had rather see his Dam on the Bier
    Than to see a fair _Februeer_.
    _March_ Wind and _May_ Sun
    Make Clothes white and Maids Dun.
    When _April_ blows his Horn
    It's good both for Hay and Corn.
    An _April_ Flood
    Carries away the Frog and her Brood.
    A cold _May_ and a windy
    Makes a full Barn and a Findy.
    A _May_ Flood never did good.
    A Swarm of Bees in _May_
    Is worth a Load of Hay.
    But a Swarm in _July_
    Is not worth a Fly, _&c._


XXV.

WINTER. _If the latter End of_ October _and Beginning of_ November
        _be for the most Part warm and rainy, then_ January _and_
        February are like to be frosty and cold, _except after a
        very dry Summer_.

IT is very evident, supposing this Observation to be true, as I am
pretty confident it is, that the Reason of it is to be sought in that
Balance of the Weather which Providence has established. There is not
only a Time to sow, and a Time to reap, but there is a Time also for
dry and a Time for wet Weather, and if these do not happen at proper
Seasons, they will certainly happen at other Seasons; for not only the
Wisdom of Philosophers hath discerned, but their Experiments and
Observations have put it out of doubt, that there is a certain Rule or
Proportion observed between wet Weather and dry in every Country, so
that it is nearly the same in every annual Revolution, neither is wet
and dry Weather only, but hot and cold, open and frost, that are thus
regulated, from whence we see, that when the Scripture represents to us
God's settling Things by Weight and Measure, it speaks not only
elegantly, but exactly. For we do not mean by Providence any
extraordinary or supernatural Interposition of almighty Power, but the
constant and settled Order established by the Will of that almighty
Being which we commonly call Nature.

THERE is nothing easier than for vulgar Understandings to mistake the
Meaning of Words, and by a Superstition natural to weak Minds convert,
what they imperfectly understand into Notions that perplex and confound
them. Hence it proceeds that in common Conversation one hears People
speak of Nature as of a Being, or a Kind of subordinate Deity, whereas
in Reality the true Meaning of Nature is, that Order or Law which God
has established in the Universe, and the Knowledge of Nature is no more
than the Light we acquire by Study into the Connexion of those Laws. In
this Sense Experience is a Kind of Revelation, that is to say, it is a
Sort of Knowledge that comes to us from without, and is infallible in
itself, we may indeed go on wrong and deceive ourselves in the
Arguments we raise from it, but the Knowledge grounded upon Experiments
never varies.

THIS is sufficient to shew us how much wiser a Thing it is to trust
this Sort of experimental Knowledge, then to put any Faith in that Kind
of idle Science which amused our Forefathers, and enabled Almanac
Makers to delude and mislead them. It is true we use the Luminaries as
well as they, but then we use them in a rational Manner, and do not
pretend to impose this or that Sign upon other People, but barely set
down our own Observations, which are to be examined and verified by the
Experience of those to whom they are submitted. The Astrologer on the
other Hand insists on what are not in Nature; the twelve Houses are a
mere Invention, and so are all the Properties ascribed to the celestial
Signs, and to the Planets; mere Dreams and Fictions devised by the
Cunning to cheat and impose upon the Ignorant, and which had been long
ago exploded if People had brought them to the only Test of which they
are capable, I mean that of Experience; with which they never did,
never will, and indeed never can agree: whereas the Rules given by our
Shepherd, are such as we have shewn, suit perfectly well with Remarks
of other studious Persons in all Ages.


XXVI.

_If_ October _and_ November _be Snow and Frost, then_ January _and_
February _are like to be_ open _and mild_.

AS this Observation stands on the same Foundation with the last, we
need not dwell upon it particularly, and therefore I shall proceed with
my former Reflections. The only Way to be acquainted with Nature, is to
study Nature. All Systems of human Invention that are not built upon
Experiments, are sooner or later found to be false, because, to say the
Truth, they are nothing better than ingenious Contrivances invented by
the Wit of Man, to conceal his Ignorance. In order to account for what
we behold, we must first of all take Pains to be well acquainted with
the Fact, and not suffer ourselves to be led away by Opinion. In order
to explain what I mean, I shall give an Instance. All the World knows
that not only the vulgar, but the learned, were for many Ages in a
constant Error about Corruption, and really believed that the Heat of
the Sun, and even animal Heat produced Worms, Maggots, and other living
Creatures. Many grave Writers carried the Thing farther, and told us of
Rats, Mice, and other Creatures produced out of the Slime of the River
_Nile_, by the Heat of the Sun in _Egypt_, which might very well pass
for Truth among those who fancied they saw every Day something of the
like Nature: I mean in the Corruption of Flesh and other Things, in
which we behold Thousands of living Creatures.

AN _Italian_ Philosopher destroyed this whole Doctrine at once, by a
simple and easy Experiment. He exposed a Piece of raw Flesh in a glass
Vessel well covered with Gauze to the Air and Sun, and found that it
putrefied without producing any living Creatures. This shews how
careful we ought to be with Respect to Facts; for till this Experiment
was made, no Body doubted that Vermin were bred by, as well as in
putrefied Bodies; whereas we are now satisfied that the Heat of the Sun
can no more produce a Worm or a Maggot, than a Horse or an Elephant. By
the same Examination we might open the Way to Knowledge, by driving out
a Multitude of other Errors. But the Humour of taking Things for
granted without inquiring into them, and then endeavouring to account
for them by dint of Reasoning, amuses us with a false shew of Wisdom,
and encourages us to persist obstinately in the Maintenance of weak and
foolish Notions.

TO apply this to the Subject of which we are treating. It is certainly
a curious and a useful Thing to understand the Nature of the Weather,
and to know how the Changes that happen in it come to pass. The
Business is to find out the true Way of coming at this kind of
Knowledge, and upon the Principles that I have advanced, it is very
evident that the, only certain Way of coming at it is by Observation.
This is a slow but a sure Method of arriving at Truth, and the Specimen
here given us, of _one_ Man's Observations, is enough to convince us
that a little Diligence and Application would soon go a great Way
towards forming a Body of such Observations as might enable us to
understand the Weather thoroughly, and to predict its Changes and
Alterations with a great Degree of Certainty. If we will not take this
Pains, we must content ourselves with what hath been already
discovered, or if our Conditions of Life exclude us from the
Opportunities of making such Observations, it is certainly a right
Thing to help ourselves by inquiring into, and reasoning upon such
Observations as other People have made and to facilitate this as far as
possible, I have taken the Pains to write this Commentary upon our
Shepherd's Rules; which I hope will render them more useful, or at
least secure them that Regard which they deserve.

THERE remains therefore nothing more for me to do in order to recommend
these Observations, but to say somewhat with Respect to the Utility of
the Alterations of the Weather in general, and in particular; in order
to satisfy the Reader that there is nothing of Chance or Accident in
such Alterations, but that they are governed in every Respect by the
same unerring Wisdom, that at first framed and constantly preserves the
Universe. All Weathers are at sometimes reasonable, which shews that
they are good in themselves, and only accidentally evil. We ought not
to measure Things of a general Nature, by particular Rules. If by the
Direction of Providence the Succession of Seasons be such, as that they
turn to the good of Mankind in the whole; it is no Objection to, or
Diminution of Providence that this Succession of Seasons should at
different Times be injurious to certain Countries, because this may
likewise be accounted for.

AS to Particulars we will begin with the Air, which is composed of
Exhalations of all earthly Bodies, as well solid as fluid, as also of
Fire, whether of the Sun or the Stars, or of earthly Bodies burnt, or
of Fire breaking out from the Entrails of the Earth, and ascending, and
though it be thus compounded, and hath swimming in it Multitudes of
other Things, yet we find that it is perfectly wholesome, is the Spring
of Motion, and of Life to Men, and all other Animals; so that though we
cannot account for, and perhaps have not a Power of comprehending how
such a mixed Body can be rendered salutary: yet since it is certain,
that so it is, we have no Right to complain either of the evil
Consequences that sometimes attend the Exhalations with which it is
filled, or the Accidents that flow from the frequent Alterations that
happen therein, because these have a visible Tendency to the general
good, and are apparently necessary to the Preservation of the Universe,
so that before we can have any Title to find fault, we must first shew
that we are capable of understanding them in their full Extent, and as
_this_ is impossible, it follows _that_ must be unreasonable.

BUT this appears still the more clearly, when it is considered, that
all such Alterations may be shewn even from the Light of Reason to be
generally useful, notwithstanding they sometimes appear troublesome and
noxious. For Instance, such quick Streams of Air in Motion as we call
Winds, though they sometimes swell into Storms and Tempests, yet are
they of great Benefit to Mankind, by purging the Air, and many other
Conveniences. It is a Proverb at _Vienna, that if_ Austria_ be not
windy it is sickly_; and this Saying is no less true in other
Countries, for by consulting the History of the last great Plague that
raged here in 1666, it will be found that there was in a Manner a dead
Calm during the Time of the Sickness, and it is known in _Egypt_, where
they have Plagues annually, that the Change of the Wind delivers them
from that Evil. Add to this the great Use of Winds in Navigation, and
reflect on the Benefits that accrue there from, and we shall see no
Cause whatever to doubt that this Motion of the Air is a very wise
Contrivance.

THE Condensation of Vapours, which is the Cause of Rain, is another
great Benefit to the World, in as much as this is very probably
supposed to be the Source of Fountains, Rivers, Lakes, and other
Magazines of fresh Water, without which the Earth would be uninhabitable,
and to which in a very great Measure its Fertility is owing. We ought
likewise to remember that though this be in itself so clear, and at the
same Time so certain, yet there are Countries in the World where it
very seldom rains, as in _Egypt_, and others where it hardly ever
rains, as in _Peru_; so that we see there is no raising general
Doctrines upon this Subject, which ought to make us the more tender in
disputing the Will of Providence, or repining when it happens to cross
our own.

THE Uses of Snow are as great though less apparent, of which I shall
mention but three. The first is its preserving Herbs and Grass in the
Winter against the Severity of Frost; secondly, its supplying Water to
Brooks and Rivers; and lastly, its furnishing the Earth with vast
Quantities of Nitre, and thereby conducing greatly to its Fertility,
and perhaps the same thing may be said of Frost, hard Winters being
often succeeded by luxuriant Summers, and thus we find that what in
Appearance causes Scarcity, may in Reality produce Plenty.

LASTLY, even Thunder, however terrible in its Appearance, and sometimes
fatal in its Effects, is nevertheless very useful and beneficial upon
the whole, for this likewise purifies the Air from sulphureous and oily
Exhalations, and the Rains that fall with it fertilize the Earth
exceedingly. It also moderates the Heat as Experience teaches us, for
as it is always gloomy and sultry before Thunder, so it is afterwards
generally cool and pleasant. These Remarks, though very short, may give
the Reader an Opportunity of extending his Observations throughout all
the Variations of Weather, and enable him to discern how useful and
instructive a thing the Study of its Alterations may be, and how
probable it is, that by proper Care and Attention, we may arrive at a
much more useful, as well as a much more certain Knowledge in regard to
the Weather, than hitherto has been attained.


FINIS.





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